汇市新闻

丹斯克银行:特朗普政府能否刺激美元大幅上涨?

日期:2016-12-13
  丹麦丹斯克银行FICC研究部全球主管Thomas Harr指出,“自从特朗普美国总统选举胜利以来,一个强烈的共识已经形成,美元将大幅增长,美国的利率将高很多。特朗普主导的财政刺激措施将推动美国中立率上升和美元走强。这与当年里根政府在一九八一至八四年度的政策大相径庭。”
 
  Thomas Harr指出,“短期内,我们同意美国增长预期的上升将推动美元走强和全球利率上扬。美国经济在特朗普胜利之前已经获得了速度。过去几周,欧元区10月零售销售,德国工厂订单和中国PMI制造业都大幅上涨,这表明美国主导的复苏正在向欧洲蔓延。然而,对我们来说,美元走强的观点是短期的,而在全球增长的推动下,美元将会失去动力。”
 
  Thomas Harr解释道,“美国财政刺激的类型和它经济增长的速度有很多不确定性。例如,特朗普一直倡导的基础设施支出不会由联邦政府资助,而是由"中立的基础设施信用系统"提供。没有保证国会将同意如期免除企业税款的回应。此外,特朗普的减税将有利于较低的消费倾向,因此只有较低的财政乘数。最后,美国的产出缺口基本上是封闭的,这表明财政刺激将增长更多的通货膨胀,一年以后可能会有负增长的情况。”
 
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