汇市新闻

摩根士丹利:美/日料在年底前持续修正

日期:2016-12-12
  摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)上周六(12月10日)撰文就美元/日元的后市表现进行分析,建议在112处逢低买入,具体内容如下:
 
  我们依旧预计美元在明年会大幅增长,但是预计美元可能在年底前继续修正。市场目前已经完全消化美联储(FED)明年加息的预期,美联储表示不会将财政政策变化包含在前景里直至变化发生,美联储进一步推高美债收益率的空间有限。另外,我们预计大选过后的美元多头将会进行部分获利了结。
 
  2017年美国大选后的重要政策举措料利好美元,我们目前预计美联储至2018年将加息6次。美元兑低收益货产品如日元的实力会更加凸显。
 
  我们认为美元/日元在短期内会修正走低,因美元涨势至年底暂时动能不足且美债收益率在当前水平整固。中期来看,再通胀动力将支持我们结构性看涨美元/日元的观点。财政刺激引导的美债收益率曲线将进一步陡峭化,风险偏好积极将令看多美元/日元明年成为我们最为看好的贸易之一。日本央行(BOJ)收益率曲线管理应确保全球收益率陡峭化推动兑日元的利率差。
 
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