汇市新闻

麦格理:美联储明年至少加息两次 美元有望大涨

日期:2016-12-09
  麦格理(Macquarie)周四(12月8日)发布《2017年展望报告》称,该行的基本预期是联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将在下周的政策会议上加息,然后2017年至少加息两次,有可能达到三次,第一次加息是在上半年,然后下半年有可能加息两次。
 
  麦格理(Macquarie)策略师Thierry Wizman在报告中写道,预计美国GDP年增速达到2.25%,货产品和财政政策的分化可能会推动美元大涨,10年期美债收益率2017年底将达3%。
 
  同时,Wizman表示,“不能排除加拿大央行(BOC)降息的可能性,但该行更可能会追求独立的政策路线,让加元贬值来促进非产品领域出口。”
 
  麦格理预计,美元/加元在2017年将达到1.40,然后到年底达到1.45。美国和加拿大2年期国债收益率差将进一步扩大。
 
  此外,Wizman预计,“美元/墨西哥比索到2017年底最高可能达到21.5,如果特朗普执政前100天"令人担忧的"消息推动汇率上升,建议利用好汇率上冲至21-22的投资机会。”
 
  他还补充道,新兴市场国家,尤其是拉美,将被迫进入“财政整顿”阶段,因为赤字和通胀上升带来降级风险。
 
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