汇市新闻

法兴银行:美元还有5%上涨空间 但2017年中料触顶

日期:2016-12-08
  法国兴业银行(601166,股吧)(Societe Generale)周二(12月6日)发布展望报告称,特朗普(Donald Trump)执政后美国经济增长料更为强劲,并与美联储(Fed)升息以及贸易孤立的预期心理等因素支撑美元,但就周期循环来看,美元涨势可能在2017年年中前触顶。
 
  不过,该行建议维持做多美元,至少在2017年上半年应该如此,并美元指数可能还有约5%上涨空间,因美联储料将持续升息,且特朗普将端出财政刺激。
 
  法国兴业银行指出,美元利率及汇率走升将使得海外借款人的庞大美元计价债务难以借新还旧。这问题料将加剧美元供不应求的情况,进而推升美元出现超涨。
 
  此外,该行提到,在美国大选尘埃落定前,美债收益率走升、美国对外贸易政策紧缩或不利于资金流入新兴市场货产品。利率走升应该自第二季起会吸引资金,但只是暂时性的。
 
  法国兴业银行预期,美元兑多数新兴市场货产品将在2017年上半年触顶,但其中除了人民产品。该行预期人民产品兑美元在2017年底触及7.3。
 
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