汇市新闻

三菱东京银行:FED纪要锦上添花 12月加息已是板上钉钉

日期:2016-11-24
  美联储周三(11月23日)发布的11月会议纪要显示,在美国大选前夕,决策者对于美国经济强劲到足以允许很快升息感到有信心。几乎所有委员仍然认为经济前景的短期风险大致均衡。
 
  三菱东京日联银行(BoT-Mit)经济学家Chris Rupkey周三在研报中称,11月1-2日的会议就是个插入符,让决策者们可以等待美国大选结果,在12月会议前度过时间。从美联储发布的纪要来看,大家不由得认为12月加息已经是板上钉钉。
 
  Rupkey表示,“美国总统大选的风险化解了,而且是以一种有利的方式,尽管之前几乎没人预见到。到了最后,美联储还是得停止讨论,直接把事情做了。”
 
  此外,他补充道,“目前唯一的不确定性就是,在经济接近正常的情况下美联储明年会加息几次。”
 
  联邦基金利率市场走势显示,11月FOMC会议纪要公布前,12月加息概率为100%,其中加息25个基点概率为98.0%;11月FOMC会议纪要公布后,12月加息概率为100%,其中加息25个基点概率为96.0%。
 
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