汇市新闻

摩根大通:耶伦直言不讳 12月加息战鼓震耳欲聋

日期:2016-11-18
  摩根大通(JPMorgan)经济学家Michael Feroli周四(11月17日)在研报中称,美联储(FED)主席耶伦(Jannet Yellen)周四在国会的证词进一步巩固了美联储12月加息的预期。
 
  耶伦表示,随着经济继续走强,美联储正接近加息,并暗示她打算继续担任主席,直到她的任期在2018年1月结束。
 
  耶伦周四在国会联合经济委员会的证词演说中表示,“如果经济数据提供联储目标取得持续进展的进一步证据,”则加息一次“可能相对很快就成为合适之举。”
 
  除非发生重大负面冲击,耶伦的言论将有助于增强市场对联邦公开市场委员会将在12月13-14日加息的预期。联邦基金利率期货合约暗示的加息25个基点的概率已经超过95%。
 
  摩根大通表示,“虽然耶伦的讲话验证了12月份加息预测,但她也对随后几个月的利率路径重申了鸽派姿态,问答环节气氛友好。”
 
  该行补充道,“她的书面讲话基本无改对美联储政策预期。从现在到12月13-14日FOMC会议之间,日程中的重要美联储沟通所剩无几。”
 
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