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法国巴黎银行:美元上行面临三大风险

日期:2016-11-14
  特朗普意外赢得美国大选,美元指数度过了神奇的一周,上周三(11月9日)一度惨跌之后,随之绝地反击,本周劲升2%,创近一年以来最佳单周表现...
 
  针对美元后市的前景,法国巴黎银行(BNNP)在最新的报告中进行了阐述,称在2016年剩下的时间内,美元指数需关注三大风险:内部、外部,以及市场!
 
  内部:如果大选后,美国候任总统特朗普和其团队致力于传递稳定市场风险的信号,那么这将促使美元继续走高。一旦释放了错误的信号,或者内阁任命人员不被市场接受,这势必将挑战内部风险环境。
 
  外部:预计大选之后,外国政府的反应将保持谨慎,但是地缘环境带有不可预测性,而且在过渡时期,国际性的压力事件可能将挑战政府的应对能力。还时常还将关注美国大选之后,欧洲的政局变化。如果欧洲领导人能够避免更广泛的风险,那么这将有助于提振欧元/美元。这或限制美联储升息,以及提振那么经常帐盈余国家的货产品,显然不利于美元。
 
  市场:如果美国国债收益率调整过快,尤其是长期国债收益率,这可能反过来影响风险环境,最终破坏美联储加息预期。我行预计,在美国国债收益率上涨的期间内,美元初期将走高,且并未将国债收益率的上涨视为美元上行的短期风险。
 
  报告还指出,目前预计欧元/美元年底将触及1.08;2017年底将达到1.05;预计美元/日元年底升至108,明年将飙至120。
 
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