汇市新闻

机构:美国10月非农料增17万 将影响12月是否加息

日期:2016-11-03
  丹斯克银行(Danske Bank)周三(11月2日)研究团队发表报告显示,11月非农将是美联储决定12月是否加息的重要指标,在数据公布后,该行可能会修改此前“美联储2016年全年不加息”的预期。
 
  该行称,这几周的初请失业金数据良好,暗示10月美国非农就业增加人数有望突破20万,但10月美国PMI就业指数不佳,表明数据可能只会增加10万人左右;该行预计,10月美国就业人数可能增加17万人左右,和市场预期一致。
 
  该行进一步表示,美联储成员对当前劳动力市场的看法各不相同,因而分歧也非常显著;其中鹰派成员认为“随着经济出现过热的风险,货产品政策需要进一步收紧”;此外,过低的利率也增加了资产跑木的出现几率;与此同时,鸽派可能会认为,经济依旧有调整的空间,且劳动力市场仍然存在一定程度的闲置;仍然较低的核心通胀率,以及薪资增速的缓慢,意味着美联储仍会保持耐心;近期美联储主席耶伦也称“经济略微过热,是为了克服金融危机对供给侧的负面影响”。
 
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