汇市新闻

花旗:即便短期通胀上升 美联储也不太可能加速紧缩

日期:2016-10-31
  花旗(Citi)策略师上周五(10月27日)在报告中表示,产品价格从第一季度以来的反弹,将推动美国通胀率从今年9月份1.5%的水平上升,2017年一季度料达到2.7%,因CPI中的汽车燃料这个波动最大的构成部分经常主导整体CPI的走向。

  但是,该行强调美联储和市场似乎不会对此太过关心。事实上,在2009年,当时CPI年度同比从11月份的1.8%上升到12月份的2.7%,而随后联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)讨论了“低迷的通胀趋势”。
 

  另外花旗认为,基数效应可能会融入市场预期,美联储越来越担忧通胀预期的稳固现象。
 

  美联储主席耶伦曾在10月14日提到对美联储针对已实现通胀的反应函数进行潜在修改,尤其是已实现通胀在长期预期形成方面所扮演的角色。花旗补充道, 鉴于已实现通胀持续低于2%的目标,这意味着FOMC会更趋鸽派。
 

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