汇市新闻

花旗:英镑仍有近10%的下行空间

日期:2016-10-24
  花旗集团(Citi)分析师Josh O"Byrne上周五(10月21日)在报告中称,未来英镑仍有进一步下跌的空间,但贬值对英国经常项目赤字的影响可能有限。
 
  Byrne指出,“虽然英镑贬值,但英国外资需求的降幅非常小,如果主要所得的收益率并未随着英镑的贬值而下降,经常项目赤字甚至可能会拓宽,只有通过经济增速放缓才能解决。”
 
  英国2016年的举债规模料较计划高出数十亿英镑,限制了财政大臣哈蒙德以财政开支提振经济的空间。
 
  根据花旗的公允价值模型WERM,英镑兑主要货产品创纪录新低。以购买力平价来看,英镑距离“低点”还有5%-10%的空间。该行对2017年初英镑/美元的目标价为1.15-1.20
 
  周一(10月24日)英镑兑美元交投在1.2218,上周五曾下跌0.2%,并录得连续第三个交易日下跌。
 
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