汇市新闻

经济学家预期下届美国总统将在任内遭遇经济衰退

日期:2016-10-14
  据外媒报道称,美国经济前景面临着两种可能性:要么下届美国总统将在任内遭遇经济衰退,要么美国将迎来历史上最长的经济扩张周期。
 
  不过,衰退的可能性似乎更大。接受《华尔街日报(博客,微博)》(The Wall Street Journal)最新月度调查的经济学家认为,未来四年经济陷入衰退的可能性高达近60%。
 
  这并不是说下任美国总统将造成经济衰退,而是在美国历史上,经济从未扩张10年而未遭遇衰退。在未来四年里,包括经济耗尽周期性动能、美联储政策失误,抑或是外部冲击,都有可能令经济脱离增长轨道。
 
  受访的经济学家预期,未来一年经济陷入衰退的机率为20%,且随着时间经过机率还会上升。在被问到原因时,多数经济学家认为最有可能的是全球经济放缓,而这个因素基本在下届总统掌控之外。
 
  不过,很少经济学家认为未来四年内经济一定会陷入衰退。四分之一受访经济学家预期肯定发生衰退的机率不到50%。
 
  上述调查访问了59名学术界、业界和金融机构经济学家,调查在10月7日至10月11日之间进行。
 
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