汇市新闻

小非农为非农敲响警钟,确信美联储年底加息?

日期:2016-10-06
  周三金银价格收跌。截至收盘,美国12月COMEX黄金期货价格下跌1.10美元,跌幅0.1%,收报1268.60美元/盎司,再次刷新英国脱欧公投以来最低收盘价;美国12月COMEX白银期货价格下跌0.08元,跌幅0.5%,收报17.695美元/盎司。
小非农为非农敲响警钟,确信美联储年底加息?(图1)
  周三(10月5日)美联储埃文斯表示,乐于见到核心通货膨胀率接近2%;但目前还没看到这个的明显迹象,美联储何时加息应该和通胀的未来举措有关。利率或在近期内就会调整,如果数据一直保持稳定,年底加息是可以接受的,预估美联储今年底之前会加息一次。美联储鹰派言论近期多次令金银承压。
 
  市场广泛担忧英国脱欧之后可能的影响,已经导致本周英镑跌至31年以来的新低,周三英镑兑美元一度跌破1.27关口。英国经济仍然较为脆弱,尚不能完全排除英国央行今年采取政策行动的可能性。英镑前景仍偏空,将利多美元。
 
  周三晚间公布的美国9月ADP就业人数为15.4万人,为4月以来最低。ADP数据公布之后,黄金、白银短线上涨。小非农表现不佳或为周五非农预警,北京时间周五(10月7日)20:30,将公布美国9月季调后非农就业人口与失业率。经济学家预计,9月非农就业人数新增17.4万。
小非农为非农敲响警钟,确信美联储年底加息?(图2)
  数据建议:
 
  黄金疲弱,断断续续连跌9天,前天下破1300,而昨天未能回稳,这对金属市场有较大打击,然而黄金虽然较疲弱,但亦不宜追沽,建议在1258.00至1276.60买卖,止损1255.00和1273.60。
 
  白银跟随黄金回落,但明显受压于5天平均移动线,建议在17.54至18.30买卖,止损17.24和18.60。
 
  油价在过去6个交易日累积上升13%,消息全面利好持有好仓,相信50.20区有较多止损盘,而油价亦籍著消息推高,建议在49.00至50.50买卖,止损48.70和50.80。

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