汇市新闻

高盛:未来3个月美元兑日元将跌至108

日期:2016-09-30
  高盛发布客户报告称,目前可以从两个角度会看日本央行上周采取的举措。
 
  第一、日本央行政策正根本性地转向积极,锁定收益率的做法暂时终结了稀缺性的讨论,为新QQE政策搭建了舞台。第二、负利率政策的火热程度展现出当前心理层面的转变。由于通胀依然远低于目标水平,市场已经逐渐丧失了耐心。
 
  虽然多数人认为,市场对财政刺激手段将帮助日本央行达成通胀目标的押注正在增加,但高盛相信只有日元继续贬值才是关键;目前通缩风险依然较大,这也是日本央行将令市场继续震荡的主要原因之一,同时也将政策指引转向锁定收益率的方向;市场似乎正受到强劲日元的打压,如果日本央行流露出放弃宽松政策的迹象,美元兑日元将轻易跌破100心理关口,这恐令日本央行行长黑田东彦的所有努力付之一炬。
 
  高盛认为,日本央行只剩下打压日元这一条唯一出路了。高盛预测未来3个月、6个月和12个月的美元兑日元价位分别是108、110和115。当前市场的最大风险是,日本央行恐误认为有能力控制美元兑日元的汇价稳定,但实际上他们做不到这点,至少到年底之前都是如此。
 
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