汇市新闻

美联储连续第六次推迟加息 美元跌幅有限的两大原因。

日期:2016-09-23
  美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)9月“一如市场预期”维持其联邦基金利率不变,但有三位FOMC票委投票反对推迟加息,并支持加息25个基点,且17位中有14位美联储官员预期2016年加息至少一次。
 
  美联储经济预期显示,预期中值暗示美联储年内将加息一次,而2017年加息两次,此前为三次,且预期2018年加息三次。与此同时,美国长期利率预期也从此前的3%下调至2.9%。
 
  尽管美联储连续第六次推迟加息,但是美元指数至此跌势有限。这主要是因为以下两个原因:
 
  [1]、首先,美联储9月货产品政策声明明确指出,加息理由已经增强,且对年内加息持有强烈预期倾向。并同时指出,当前风险前景大致平衡。
 
  [2]、其次就是,因为市场多空仓位在美联储货产品政策会议前便已经进入净空头头寸状态,这也就意味着,市场在美联储加息之前已经对美联储继续推迟加息进行了一定程度的定价。
 
  虽然,短期内美元跌势可能将会进一步扩大,但是法国巴黎银行认为,美元的下跌或将为市场提供后市做多机会。
 
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