汇市新闻

美联储加息预期降温 人民产品汇率或顺势升值

日期:2016-09-19
  分析人士认为,美国本期加息可能很小,这也有助于打击做空人民产品的游资
 
  9月20日-21日,美联储将召开FOMC货产品政策会议并公布其9月货产品政策利率决议。美联储究竟是否加息,最终谜底将马上揭晓。但实际上,市场人士普遍对美联储9月份加息的预期极低,认为美联储此次不太可能“意外”加息。
 
  “近期美联储加息预期确实很低,但并不是没有。这次有可能不加息,但个人认为年底还是会加息的。”厚生智库研究员赵亚赟对《证券日报》记者表示,美国经济数据不尽如人意,资产价格也出现了下滑,因此,如果美联储最终决议不加息,人民产品汇率可能会顺势升值,打击做空人民产品的游资。
 
  9月14日香港隔夜人民产品银行同业拆息(Hibor)利率定价飙升532个基点至8.1617%,创半年以来新高,一周期Hibor亦涨至10.152%,上涨522.57个基点。此前,在9月8日,Hibor的隔夜利率也有过上涨,较前一日上升388个基点至5.45%。
 
  市场对此解读为,央行可能为稳定汇率而抬高做空离岸人民产品的成本,尽管现在离岸人民产品市场已经出现流动性紧张的情况。而在岸市场人民产品汇率的反弹,显示出央行组合拳打击人民产品做空投机者,此举也为后续汇率双向波动提供空间。
 
  “这次美联储加息的概率相对较低。实际上,美联储加息的进程和预期存在波动和不确定性,对国际金融市场和货产品走势造成了扰动。不管怎么说,如果这次如市场主流预期并没有加息,那么包括人民产品在内的国际货产品走势仍将维持在目前的状态。人民产品将继续稳中略贬的趋势。
 
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