汇市新闻

日元净多头头寸遭减半 失守100大关只是时间问题

日期:2016-08-04
  美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)公布的数据显示,最近数周对冲基金以及其它大型投机客几乎已经将日元净多头头寸减半,而美元净多头头寸则升至2月来最高水平。
 
  日本央行(BOJ)上周五虽然扩大了交易所交易基金(ETF)购买规模,但维持债券购买规模和负存款利率不变的决定却令投资者感到失望。
 
  这种失望情绪在周二进一步加剧。日本政府周二公布的财政开支细节显示,在总体价值28万亿日元的刺激方案中,只有4.6万亿日元为追加开支。
 
  苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.)驻新加坡的外汇策略师Mansoor Mohi-uddin说道:“尽管总的刺激方案有28万亿日元,但实际新增支出只有四分之一。这是决策者行动不及预期的又一表现。”
 
  IG Securities的分析师Ishikawa称,美元/日元失守100大关只是时间问题而已。英国公投决定退欧后,美元/日元曾短暂跌破该关口,但此后设法回到该关口上方。
 
  Ishikawa说道:“美元/日元在英国公投退欧后跌破100颇不寻常。但这回日元因基本面因素而稳定上涨,比如日本经常帐收支好转,及日本央行多方位放宽政策效应消退。”
 
  意大利联合信贷(UniCredit Bank AG)全球外汇策略主管Vasileios Gkionakis表示:“鉴于目前并没有谈论进一步的大规模量化宽松(QE),更别提“直升机撒钱”了,我认为美元兑日元会从目前的水平走低。”
 
  Gkionakis预计,年底前美元兑日元将跌至95,为2013年以来的最弱水平。
 
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