汇市新闻

明年底之前加拿大央行料按兵不动 英国脱欧为直接风险

日期:2016-07-08
  周四(7月7日)公布的路透调查显示,鉴于油价仍受到抑制,且英国脱欧恐拖累全球经济增长前景,加拿大央行料将维持利率至明年年底。
  
  “英国脱欧可能会导致包括美国在内的全球经济放缓,这将损及加拿大出口,而加拿大央行将此视为经济增长的关键所在,”Informa Global Markets加拿大市场首席分析师James Blumenthal指出。
  
  英国23日的公投令全球金融市场遭到重创,经济活动恐将受到影响。
  
  经济学家们仍预计明年底之前加拿大央行将按兵不动,而三个月内这一预期已经数次遭到推迟。
  
  接受调查的逾40位经济学家们一致认为,加拿大央行在7月13日会议上将维持利率在0.50%不变。加拿大央行将在明年第四季升息25个基点至0.75%,5月调查时为明年第三季。
  
  不过,初期债券交易员们却没有这么乐观,他们预计2018年初才会加息。
  
  近半数经济学家们表示,美国经济放缓对加拿大央行今年经济成长预估构成最大风险。部分经济学家们预计该行下一步行动或为降息25个基点,这一预期中值为30%。
  
  再次降息恐令加拿大家庭的高债务水平面临进一步挑战。一季度加拿大家庭债务/收入比为165.3%。
  
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