汇市新闻

下半年欧元将面临更大的下行压力

日期:2016-07-05
  加拿大丰业银行(Scotiabank)首席外汇分析师Shaun Osborne周一(7月4日)表示,上周欧元兑美元的反弹迎来了月度乃至季度的终点,但这并不影响对欧元前景的任何评估,不过欧元面临的风险仍旧偏下行。
  
  该行表示,在英国脱离欧盟后,市场已经开始逐渐担忧欧元区的经济增长和通胀,因而该行预计,欧元兑美元的风险仍偏下行,正如欧元区长期计划所揭示的那样;此外,银行业等金融股的走软,也带动了欧元区股票的疲软;而英国脱离欧盟,对欧元区的银行业则是另一重大不利因素,并将打压欧元。
  
  该行进一步表示,欧元兑美元短期内技术面中性偏空:短期内呈现盘整走势,但前景偏空;欧元兑美元此前日内交投呈现出楔形的下跌走势,在1.11区域之上将继续触发市场卖压——该区域此前曾是上升通道,并在过去6个月支撑了欧元兑美元的上涨,但如今却变成了阻力位。
  
  该行进一步表示,预计欧元兑美元近期上涨遇阻,主要阻力点位位于1.1160附近;今年下半年欧元将面临更大的下行压力,若跌破1.1096的200日均线,将有望扩大跌幅。
  
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