汇市新闻

预计5月非农报告良好 6月加息仍有希望

日期:2016-05-30
  美银美林发布了美国5月非农就业报告前瞻,该行表示,预计美国5月非农就业人口增加16万人,相对前三个月20万人的水平有所下降,也就是说就业增长将会受到目前持续中的Verizon员工罢工事件的影响,据此前的调查显示,越有39000名Verizon的员工并未参与工作。扣除这一部分影响的话,就业市场仍处于健康发展的状况,并预计私企就业15万人,政府部门新增就业1万人。
 
  另一个潜在的利好则是4月非农就业人数有望得到上修。根据分析,去年9月非农就业人口上修幅度创下历史新高,4月则出现了一些与当时类似的,有利上修的统计结果。另一方面,5月非农有少量的下行风险:初请失业金人数的四周均值有所上升,但此前4月则是处在周期的低点。就业参与率回升也使得失业率很难进一步下降。
 
  该行预计5月每小时时薪增长0.2%,比上个月略低,年率则会保持在2.5%不变。作为6月美联储FOMC会议前的最后一份就业报告,如果报告符合该行的预期,那么6月加息仍有希望,但6月升息并不在美银美林预期中。

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