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仅有三成的经济学家认为美联储仍会在6月升息

日期:2016-05-13
  本月接受《华尔街日报(博客,微博)》调查的大约31%的经济学家预计,美联储在6月14-15日会议上将提高短期利率,另有31%的经济学家则预计美联储会等到9月再加息。还有21%的经济学家认为美联储下一次将在7月会议上采取行动。这是2月以来经济学家第一次不再一致认为6月是美联储下一次加息的时间。
 
  4月时,四分之三的受访者预计美联储将在6月加息。
 
  英国退欧公投在调查中也给经济学家带来压力。此次公投定在6月23日美联储会议之后的一周举行。大约78%的受访经济学家称,如果投票结果仍无法确定,美联储可能会推迟加息。
 
  但对于公投对美国经济的影响,经济学家则相对乐观。略超过一半的经济学家认为英国民众支持退欧将会给金融市场带来影响,但不会影响到美国整体经济。只有三分之一的经济学家认为英国退欧将拖累美国经济。
 
  美联储官员3月预计今年将加息50个基点,这可能会通过两次分别加息25个基点的方式实现。接受调查的经济学家预计2016年年底联邦基金利率在0.76%,低于4月调查时的0.84%,这意味着更多人倾向于预计美联储今年仅会加息一次。

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