日本出口在今年呈疲软趋势，日元升值也将进一步导致出口恶化。
与此同时，资本市场则完全是另外一番景象。相较于美元，看涨日元的投机盘正变得越来越多，这与美元和日元的近期走势相一致。
与欧央行的负利率政策相比，日本央行采取的三层利率体系只能算是“蜻蜓点水”。所以当日本经济数据走弱时，市场普遍下注日本央行会继续调低利率，而利率下降则会进一步抬高日本安全资产的价格，这或许是市场倾向于持有日元的原因之一。
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