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【投行前瞻】本周美联储4月会议料不会暗示6月加息

日期:2016-04-25
  美联储(Fed)本周二(4月26日)至周三(4月27日)将召开4月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)货产品政策会议。根据华尔街投行分析师所发布的报告,美联储预计会在4月会议上维持利率不变,同时也不会暗示下一次的会议存在加息可能,预计会继续关注全球局势所带来的风险。
 
  美联储在3月会议上承认,美国经济面临的国际性风险给暂停行动理由,暗示今年可能升息两次左右,仅为12月最初预计的一半。
 
  据联邦基金期货市场显示,下一次加息最晚在2017年3月份,隐含利率水平约在63个基点,接近50-75基点目标区间的中点。
 
  某投资分析师指出,“美联储在会议上不会做出大幅调整。美联储FOMC将“避免向任何一个方向撼动市场预期对经济持谨慎、但依然乐观的看法。”
 
  某投资分析师称,“美联储有关利率的公开讨论正加大市场的\\\"瘫痪程度\\\"。希望官员们在会议前夕的这段淡静期中反思一下他们自由放任的沟通策略所产生的不良后果。”
 
  某投资分析师表示,“本周美联储预计将维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0.25%-0.50%不变,继续监测全球经济/金融状况,不会再提\\\"风险平衡\\\"的评估
 
  不作出评估的话则意味着6月份加息的可能性并不大。”
 
  某投资分析师称,“美联储将维持审慎论调,不会出现\\\"鹰派大反转\\\",应该会维持几个月都按兵不动,且不会就6月加息给出确定性暗示。”
 
  某投资分析师还补充道,“鉴于美国核心通胀水平较低,美联储决策者们将可拖延一段时间。”
 
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