汇市新闻

荷兰合作银行:英国央行2017年2月前加息无望

日期:2016-04-11
  荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)高级汇市策略师Jane Foley认为,下周英国央行的议息例会意义不大。他预料英国央行今年内继续维持现有基准利率不变。
 
  Foley表示,与美国联邦公开市场委员会、欧洲央行和日本央行相比,英国央行的政策会议对最近相关资产价格影响有限。虽然英国的脱欧公投风波导致今年以来英镑兑各主要货产品大幅下挫,可目前尚不清楚相关时间能对英国央行对策的影响如何。
 
  对此他解释道,倘若公投结果最终令到英国不再属于欧盟成员,难免将导致外资减少投入甚至撤离,经济增长会受到严重打击。而英镑疲软不利于该国通胀率的提升,则可能抵消了经济下行的风险。他提示,下个月(5月)发布的最新季度通胀报告也许将为英镑弱势对央行政策的影响的提供一些思路。
 
  从今年2月中旬开始,英国脱欧的恐惧使得市场风险偏好也未能对英国3月份的利率决议产生持续影响。市场甚至开始怀疑英国央行在明年中之前有机会降息。不过该行还是预期,英国央行将奉行审慎态度,在2017年2月前继续维持基准利率不变。
 
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