汇市新闻

美联储与其他央行政策分歧或比市场预期更持久

日期:2016-03-10
  高盛集团分析师预计,美联储与其他各国央行的政策分歧可能会比债券交易商预计的持续更久,这意味着全球范围内的国债和主权债券的收益率差距将继续扩大。
 
  彭博社报道,高盛分析师预计,尽管欧洲和日本央行相继引入负利率,美联储今年内仍将加息三次。在全球广泛采取刺激措施的同时,美国利率政策将何去何从是交易商关注的焦点。期货市场交易情况显示,今年美联储加息可能只有一次,因此,交易商对于高盛的预期提出质疑。
 
  高盛分析师表示,投资者认为政策分歧是不可持续的,部分原因是可能会造成美元进一步升值,从而对经济增长和通胀造成拖累。但他们预计,这种政策分歧还将继续,这也意味着美国和其他发达经济体的短期国债收益率差距可能会拉大。周二,美国和日本两年期国债收益率差距创下2008年以来最高水平,而在周一,美国和德国两年期国债收益率差距更创下2006年以来最大。
 
  高盛分析师在3月8日的一份报告中提到,如果央行的政策预期正确,“从历史标准来看,美国和国外利率的差距并非不寻常,或者令人难以置信。”
 
  若果真依照高盛分析师预期,美联储今年内加息三次,那么至今年年底,这种政策分歧相当于自1985年起30年以来的平均水平。
 
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