汇市新闻

镑/美回落跌至两日低位 焦点转向零售和通胀数据

日期:2016-02-16
  周一(2月15日)英镑兑美元震荡下挫,受到美元走强打压,虽然美国市场休市,但亚欧市场良好提振了市场风险情绪,美元受到支撑。目前市场焦点转向本周二英国将要公布的零售和通胀数据。
 
  鉴于近来全球市场避险普遍升温,投资者再度推延英国央行加息时间点,市场上甚至传出降息的忧虑。
 
  美银美林将英国2016年经济增长预期由2.3%下调至2%;将2017年增长预期由2.5%下调至2.4%。该行分析师指出,市场走势预示英国央行未来12个月内将降息一次。
 
  英镑还受到英国退欧忧虑打压。民调公司康雷斯最新发布的一份调查显示,49%受访者反对英国退欧,41%赞成退欧。德国财长朔伊布勒就指出,英国退欧公投存在很大的,不确定性。
 
  高盛联席投行主管表示,若英国脱离欧盟,高盛会将部分办公室撤离。汇丰控股首席执行官称,如果“英国退欧”,可能会将大约1000名投行员工调往巴黎,汇丰在伦敦拥有大约5000名员工,倾向于英国脱离欧盟的结果将会对汇丰的投行部门产生“重大影响”、但不会影响到消费者业务。
 
  周一英国央行MPC委员鹰派的麦卡弗蒂却发表偏鸽派言论,进一步施压英镑。麦卡弗蒂称,英国央行无需立即加息。不过他还称,“英国退欧”风险对投资的影响有限,通胀上行风险进一步显现。英国央行没有用完“弹药”。
 
  技术上,英镑兑美元小时图中,汇价走势震荡偏空。技术指标MACD(12,26,9)主线和信号线位于零轴下方,说明价格趋势震荡偏空。相对强弱指标RSI(14)升至50均衡位置下方,说明价格力度偏空。技术上的走势表明,英镑兑美元有望继续走低。
 
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