汇市新闻

美银美林交易策略大公开:偏好做空欧元 仍保留澳元多单

日期:2016-01-29
        美银美林(BofA Merrill)日前在至客户报告中公开了自身外汇市场交易策略和头寸分布情况,该行正在做空欧元,且更偏好做空欧元交叉盘,同时也保留了澳元/纽元的头头仓位。

  该行写道:
 
  我们正做空欧元/日元,预计汇价将自当前的128一线跌至年底时的114。相比美元/日元,我们更偏好做空前者,因为欧洲央行的政策宽松倾向将抵消日本央行类似立场的影响。
 
  作为替代,我们也偏好做空瑞郎/日元,我们去年8月就表达了这一观点,此后瑞郎/日元下跌了7.7%。然而日元依然较瑞郎低估,我们预计瑞郎/日元年底前将自当前的116.8跌至102.0。
 
  我们同时做空欧元/瑞典克朗,预计欧洲央行今年的宽松力度会超过瑞典央行,作为对更为严重的通缩风险的回应,我们对于汇价的预期为8.90。
 
  此外,我们还做多澳元/纽元,预计汇价将在年底前升至1.10。我们也在做多澳元/韩元,目标位920。
 
  我们一段时间以来认为欧元/美元的风险偏于下行,欧元在欧洲央行重审宽松立场后并没有明显走弱,然而我们依然认为,欧洲央行和美联储的货产品政策立场差异将驱动欧元在年内稍晚走弱,我们会逢高做空欧元/美元。
 
  我们的波动率策略近期提示,欧元/美元的巨额期权到期将会造成市场的波动放大,考虑到汇价近期横盘整固的态势,预计汇价很快将在这些期权到期后实现区间突破。
 
  北京时间8:02,欧元/美元报1.0932,美元/日元报118.88
 
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