汇市新闻

欧元/美元2016年中料触及平价

日期:2015-11-23
周五(11月20日)欧元/美元震荡走低以阴线收跌,收盘位于1.0644。
 
上周欧元兑美元连续2个交易日反弹收涨后急跌,受压于欧洲央行(ECB)行长德拉基讲话,其称准备向欧元区经济推出更多刺激举措以提振通胀。
 
多数大行坚定地认为,欧元/美元未来几个月内将跌向平价,因美联储(Fed)即将启动升息,而欧洲央行(ECB)的政策方向相反。欧元/美元跌至1.07关口下方,11月目前为止已经累计下跌3.3%,势将录得3月以来的最差月度表现。
 
德拉基周五的讲话表明,欧洲央行将尽其所能尽快提升通胀,指出下调存款利率的益处,帮助扩充公债购买量化宽松政策。
 
某货产品策略师称,“德拉基讲话支撑了欧洲央行12月会议将采取更多、可能更强有力刺激举措的预期。”
 
某专业人士预计,欧元兑美元2016年中将触及平价,美联储可能也要到那个时候才会第二次升息。他称,欧元2016年是否会大幅走弱将取决于很多因素,但其中一个因素是欧洲央行愿意将存款利率推向多低。整体来看,当前市场分析人士怀疑美元是否具有2014年底那样的持续上涨动能。
 
短期来看,选择权市场在大约1.06美元附近有巨大的障碍,阻止欧元进一步下跌。
 
某知名人士周五进一步确认了美联储下月升息的预期。他称美联储应该“很快”准备好升息,因决策者对低通胀将反弹和就业市场保持稳定越来越有信心。
 
 
 
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