汇市新闻

外汇市场告诉我们 欧洲已经开始“日本化”

日期:2015-09-25
关于欧元区经济是否会步日本后尘并最终“日本化”的争论尚无定论,但是从汇率表现来看,欧元“日元化”似乎已经完成。两者对美元的汇率变化同步率创下2007年以来最高水平,欧元也似乎开始成为避险货产品。
德国商业银行驻法兰克福外汇策略主管Ulrich Leuchtmann认为欧元的表现和日元十分类似,并且这种趋势在近期得到了加强。欧洲央行最大的挑战在于,欧元可能会因为某种原因而升值。这不仅和整体欧元区经济南辕北辙,而且也是欧洲央行最不愿意看到的结果。
最明显的情况下是在8月中旬中国央行下调人民产品中间价之后,全球股市集体重挫。避险情绪弥漫之下,欧元和日元成为了两大赢家。
法国兴业银行策略师Kit Juckes表示,在金融市场处于动荡的时候,欧元和日元都会受益于资金回流而走高。尽管欧洲央行不希望看到欧元走强,但是风险偏好恶化可能会令他们失望。
先锋投资的Andreas Koenig也认同欧元和日元的联动性,但是他指出,关键在于,这两者是否会长期同步。“欧元区不是一个理想的避险天堂,但是套息交易令欧元看起来像是避险品种。但是随着欧元空头的解除,欧元和风险偏好的关联可能就会减弱。在我们看来,欧元是融资货产品,而非避险货产品。投资者借入欧元是因为它足够便宜,而在市场情绪恶化的时候他们会将欧元空头平仓。这种情况出现的越多,那么欧元和日元的同步就会越弱。”
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