汇市新闻

市场对美联储9月加息预期大增 押注概率达52%

日期:2015-08-06
     周三,据相关机构报道,市场对美联储将于9月加息的预期较两天前大幅增强。这与周二亚特兰大联储主席Lockhart认为9月会加息的表态有关。此外,美国7月ISM非制造业PMI高于预期,也增强了市场的这种预期。
  市场对美联储将于9月加息的预期较两天前大幅增强。周三,市场认为美联储有52%的概率于9月加息。而两天前,这个比例仅为38%。
  市场对美联储9月加息的预期大增,主要与亚特兰大联储主席Lockhart的近期讲话有关。周二,亚特兰大联储主席Lockhart在接受《华尔街日报》独家采访时表示,美国经济已到了适合加息的程度,9月应该加息。除非未来数据非常糟糕,推迟到9月后加息才合适。
  不过,Lockhart称,他不会对未来几周的数据给出太多权重,除非数据极弱。整体看,Lockhart认为,在他看来9月不加息的门槛很高。
  Lockhart的讲话受到高度重视,因为他是美联储中立派委员,代表美联储内部大多数官员的意见。Lockhart讲话公布后,市场很“买单”。美股和美债均下跌,美元上涨。
  此前,美联储主席耶伦在公开讲话中称,尽管全球大背景下有许多风险点,但美国经济和劳动力市场在改善,相信通胀将逐步重返2%,今年某时加息很可能是合适之举。
  美国ISM非制造业数据强劲,也增强了市场对9月加息的预期。美国供应管理协会(ISM)公布数据显示,美国7月ISM非制造业指数60.3,高于预期的56.2,亦高于6月的56,创下2005年以来新高。其中,新订单分项指数和就业分项指数均创2005年8月以来新高。
 
 
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