汇市新闻

巴克莱本周交易推荐:做空欧元 做多英镑

日期:2015-08-03
    巴克莱资本在每周交易推荐中指出,外汇交易员们应考虑做空欧元/英镑,此项交易为宏观及技术面双线推动。
  宏观层面,巴克莱提到以下逻辑:
  我们预计英镑本周有望走高,因至少有一位英国央行(BOE)货产品政策委员会成员将投票反对维持利率不变,我们预计英国央行通胀评估和预期将显示英国薪资将提升,进而暗示未来将有更早而渐近的加息周期启动,我们预计加息的时点会在2016年1季度。
  技术方面,巴克莱提到这样的逻辑:
  我们总体上看跌欧元/英镑,并倾向于通过汇价反弹时机在更有利的价位水平做空,0.7225附近的阻力或将有集中的抛盘压力涌现,下行目标将看至0.6930的低位区,若该位失守,则我肯看跌的观点将得到进一步巩固,后市目标将看0.6770区域。
英国央行周四(8月6日)同时宣布利率决定,公布8月政策会议纪要、通胀报告,以及公布最新经济增长、通胀和失业率预估。这一举措可谓是在全球主要央行中开创先河。
需要提醒的是,有市场观点认为,虽然英国央行升息预期升温,但是英镑近期走势比较弹性。这可能也表明一旦出现利空因素,英镑或面临大幅下挫。
  如果美国7月非农就业人口增幅持续强劲,进一步支撑市场关于美联储升息的预期,从而全面支持美元走强。美国劳工部(DOL)周五(8月7日)公布7月非农就业人口,预期增长21.8万。
 
 
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