汇市新闻

两大潜在欧元大空头尚未发力

日期:2015-04-02
国际货产品基金组织(IMF)周三(4月1日)公布的数据显示,全球各国央行的欧元外汇储备份额去年降至了22%的新周期低点。而几乎所有的份额降低都和欧元汇率贬值有关,各国央行并没有减持欧元储备。
 
不过德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)日前指出,这些并非是欧元国际储备市场的全景。
 
该行在汇市研报中写道:
 
IMF数据并没有将全球最大的两个外汇储备国纳入其中,而这部分储备等同于其他剩余储备的总额,这些欧元持有国就是最大的欧元潜在空头。
 
1. 中东地区
 
该地区持有价值1万亿美元的欧元官方储备,还有2.5万亿美元是通过主权财富基金的方式持有,我们预计中东产油国将在2015年录得超过2000亿美元的财政赤字,然而收益率极低的欧元资产似乎是他们最有可能抛售的资产。
    
2. 中国
 
中国拥有全球最大的外汇储备规模,但中国也在以历史罕有的速度调整储备快速递增的势头进行调整。
 
总结上述线索,中东和中国多半会在未来数年内遭遇降低储备的压力,而欧元储备的低收益前景很可能使新兴市场和商品市场再次收获向上的扩张趋势。
 
北京时间7:42,欧元/美元报1.0770。
 
 
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