汇市新闻

天下无不散之筵席 美元将迎最后一涨

日期:2015-03-12
   加拿大帝国商业银行全球市场(CIBC World Markets)日前表示,所有美妙绝伦的事都会有结束的时候,即便是奔牛不止的美元强势。
  该行在汇市研报中写道:
  外汇市场现在尚未完全消化美联储(FED)未来可能快速加息的预期,首次加息可能在今年6月,而这一事件的兑现有望促成美元的最后一涨。随后其他主要经济体的好消息会逆转美元强势。
  联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将于本月17-18日召开,委员会将做好准备在货产品前瞻性指导中放弃“(加息之前保持)耐心”的措辞,这多半会成为债券市场的叫醒闹钟,而美元的最后一轮涨势也将随之而起。
  此外,有迹象显示,在交易可持续性方面,美元涨势有超买嫌疑,尤其是在油价反弹同时美国名义进口提升的情况下。
  美国出口订单持续凋零,对美国实体经济造成伤害,出口也对企业收益构成破坏,后者是资本开支的主要长期驱动力,而海外销售的减少让资金汇回美国的规模减少。
 
 
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