汇市新闻

德意志银行:新西兰联储决议或震惊市场

日期:2015-03-11
 德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)周二(3月10日)表示,“市场认为本周新西兰联储利率决议影响力较低,预计只有4%的几率降息。而纽元净空头头寸已经从4周前的23%降至5%。”
 该行预计,“因此我们认为市场将被一个明显鸽派的新西兰联储给震惊到。”
 德银解释道,“市场解读1月的利率决议声明时认为仅仅是取消了紧缩倾向,因此预计本次利率决议可能是中性的,但是我们认为本次是鸽派而非中性。新西兰联储可能倾向于希望纽元“进一步显著贬值”如果期望的贬值不能很快实现,将准备降息。然而上一次的谨慎措辞未能将此意向传达给市场。”
 德银建议道,“我们预计本次决议声明将纠正1月份和市场的沟通不畅,并展现出显著的鸽派姿态。考虑到轻仓的空头头寸和中性的市场计价预期,鸽派的决议声明料将显著削弱纽元/美元,因此建议做空。”
 
 
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