汇市新闻

做多欧元没有事实依据 再次下调报价预期

日期:2015-02-26
     某研究机构,认为尽管美元强势早在2014年年中就以启动,但今年仍有很大牛市延展空间。
 
  在研报中写道:
 
  美元强势尚未结束
  支持这一观点的动因包括,美国经济活力满满(1月高盛CAI指标增长3.3%,同时1季度官方GDP增长2.7%);美联储(FED)正逐渐走进首次加息,这多半将维持美元相对其他G10产品种的2年期资金利差优势。
 
  市场担忧没有事实依据
  美元强势观点近期被市场抛弃,不少投资者认为美元今年将进入震荡市。主因近期经济数据表现不一,而欧洲经济有望进入反弹周期,某种程度上这些“预期”是市场人士相信欧元/美元有望反弹的催化剂。
  在这种情况下,希腊危机的再次缓解被人们用来作为买入欧元的理由,但我们并不认同。最终,我们的美元看涨观点是建立在美国相对G10货产品的各种优势之上。希腊债务问题的谈判会让相关忧虑持续,尤其是在希腊债务可持续问题始终未能敲定长效机制,同时各大欧元区边缘国家难以实现有效增长的情况下。
 
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