汇市新闻

美元下跌 黃金突破阻力

日期:2021-02-11


美國勞工部周三(2月10日)公布的數據顯示,1月份消費者通脹壓力喜憂參半,1月份CPI月率增長0.3%,符合預期;不過,年率持平,遜於預期。數據公布之後,美元指數短線下跌,隨後自低位反彈;現貨黃金一度突破1850美元/盎司的初始阻力位,但隨後很快調轉方向轉而下跌;美股走勢也先揚後抑,很快由漲轉跌。


不過,剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格,核心通脹率持平,低於預期的增長0.2%;1月核心CPI年率上漲1.4%,預期增長1.5%。美國核心CPI連續第二個月持平,彰顯出新冠疫情對通脹水平的持續壓制。眼下金融市場對通脹路徑的辯論日益升溫。盡管1月CPI數據保持低迷,但未來 數月價格壓力勢將上升。這在一定程度上反映了人們對美國國會將通過新一輪紓困方案的預期,以及對需求有望隨新冠疫苗接種而回升的預期。同時,失業率顯示勞動力市場閑置水平較高,這被認為限制了薪資增長,而薪資在公司總成本中占比最高。展望未來,未來幾個月的通脹指標料因基期效應而出現扭曲。新冠疫情及隨之而來的經濟衰退導致去年3-5月CPI下降。意味着今年這幾個月的同比數據料顯示通脹迅速加速上升。


傳統上被視為安全港的美元兌主要貨幣下跌,原因是對政策制定者提供的貨幣和財政支持的樂觀情緒、強勁的企業盈利以及新冠疫苗可能加速美國和其他地方恢複正常的前景,提振了風險情緒。上周五令人失望的非農就業數據完全令美元承壓,這一數據令人們對美國表現優於預期的說法產生懷疑,並讓人們重新關注美國財政和貨幣政策持續通貨再膨脹的前景,”他們周三在一份客戶報告中寫道。


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