汇市新闻

美国1月非农皆大欢喜 交易商料Fed加息时间将提前

日期:2015-02-09
   在上周五(2月6日)意外强劲的美国1月非农报告公布后,交易商进一步押注美联储(Fed)将在年中前开始加息。
  数据显示,以三个月期来看,美国非农就业岗位录得1997年以来最高增幅。薪资成长速度则创下8月以来最快。分析师表示,随着经济复苏动能增加,美联储可能不需要将利率保持在低位过久。
美联储上次升息还是在2006年,自2008年底金融危机以来一直维持近零的目标政策利率。周五美国公布就业报告显示,美国1月新增就业人口25.7万人,虽全球经济表现疲弱,但美国经济增长稳健。同时1月薪资成长力度增强,不过通胀仍相对温和。一旦薪资继续增长,美联储将对国内经济扩张更有信心。
相关分析人士表示,“非农报告令美联储(加息预估时间)回到夏季,或许还会更早。美联储维持利率在近零水准的理由越来越少。”
    也有分析人士表示,“美联储将在6月会议时察看整体通胀率,预料整体通胀将处于极低水准。”她认为美联储将选择在6月首次
  与美联储主要政策利率关联的期货合约走势显示,交易员预计美联储在2015年9月首次加息的可能性达到62%。7月升息的可能性为47%。而在上周非农报告发布前,交易商预计美联储需要等到10月才会做出加息决定。
 
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