财经快讯

美元美债走强 黄金失守1340关口仍存下行风险

日期:2018-04-25
      近期金融市场随着风险情绪的显著改善以及美债收益率全线大涨,美元指数强势反攻站稳90关口上方,黄金遭受获利了结在1350美元/盎司附近承压大幅下挫。市场正在关注美元升值,这对黄金价格走势构成很大风险,同时黄金受一系列利空因素的影响,已跌破重要关键支撑位1340关口,后市美联储加息预期增强将进一步对黄金价格构成施压,这将导致短期内黄金依然存在下行风险。
 美元美债走强 黄金失守1340关口仍存下行风险(图1)
       近期美元指数走势强劲,美债收益率全线大涨带动美元重新回到90整数关口上方,并创两周新高。美国经济报告显示,对比其他国家经济体表现不佳,美国上周公布的失业人数走低,零售销售数据反弹,房市指标仍持续高涨,工业生产表现也相当给力,凸显出美国经济亮丽,就业良好,美国经济数据仍旧保持相对强健,这不但带动美国公债收益率上扬,也使美国与其他国家间的利差扩大,从而对美元构成支撑,预计在未来,美国将继续实施其扩张性的财政政策,这将刺激美国国债的供应量,受此影响在未来一段时期内,美国10年期国债收益率或将会升至3%附近;同时随着美国经济的稳健增长,美元的支撑将更加强劲,黄金价格或将承压大幅走弱。
 
       美元指数和美国国债的走强似乎预示着离美联储今年再次加息已经不远,目前市场对美联储接下来的加息路径显得极为有信心,甚至已经开始预测美联储在2018年将一共加息4次,而不是货币政策决策者所暗示的3次,导致市场对美联储6月份加息的预期越来越大,美联储加息预期的上升也推动债券收益率上涨,这将会刺激美元指数上涨,进而打压黄金的表现。
 
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