财经快讯

军事不确定性料忽隐忽现,黄金将备受折磨

日期:2018-04-16
  按照以往类似事件的经验,美英法此次联合轰炸叙利亚虽然是一次很短暂的军事行动,并且已经结束,但必然在全球资本市场同样引发“大爆炸”,对全球股市、新一、黄金等资本市场造成较大的影响,由于叙利亚涉及到美国、俄罗斯等大国博弈,一次轰炸并不能解决问题,美国军方也表示是一场持续的行动,换言之,或对全球资本市场产生持续影响。
 
  值得注意的是,这次的时间是股市休市期间才开打,并非偶然,或是特朗普希望避免对美股造成过大的波动。不过,本周包括美股在内的资本市场已经提前对叙利亚问题局势恶化作出反应。本周中美贸易战缓解,周初美股全线反弹走高,重返上周高位附近。然下半周随着叙利亚问题局势恶化,市场风险偏好降低,美股反弹受限。
军事不确定性料忽隐忽现,黄金将备受折磨(图1)
  黄金市场本周全周围绕叙利亚问题波动,上半周特朗普宣布对叙利亚进行轰炸,引起恐慌情绪飙升,黄金连续三日走高,盘中曾大涨近2.92%,至1365.40美元/盎司;随后特朗普在叙利亚问题上含糊不清,导致恐慌情绪缓解,黄金一度回吐所有涨幅。本周现货黄金大涨近0.9%,振幅2.91%。
 
  汇通网认为,按照美国军方的“一场持续行动”的表态,未来相当长一段时间内,黄金市场应该是在高位上升运行。且黄金投资者需警惕下周一恐会出现的跳空高开行情,并需要关注“上升——回吐”引发的震荡,须避免两头挨打的现象发生。
 
  叙利亚问题的不确定性随着英美法轰炸并不是“利空出尽”,而是把担忧从猜测变成现实。这种不确定性并没有因为军事行动的结束而消失或减弱。今后相当长一段时间里,这种不确定性都会如鬼魅一样忽隐忽现,并主导市场情绪,金价料将备受折磨。

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