财经快讯

CME料美联储可能会撒鹰 黄金要有“大麻烦”

日期:2018-03-20
       芝加哥商业交易所(CME Group)执行董事、高级经济学家Erik Norland周一(3月19日)表示,由于强劲的劳动力市场和不断扩张的经济,市场应预计美联储宁可站在鹰派立场上。
 
  Norland在接受Kitco采访时说道:“美联储周三显然将加息,我认为这是毫无疑问的,但我认为他们将让市场准备迎接更多的加息,这或多或少地已反映在联邦基金期货之中。”
 
  外界普遍预计美联储会在本周会议上加息,这是由鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)首次主持的会议。在此次会议上,美联储将发布最新的预测,鲍威尔也会召开新闻发布会。
 
  根据联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)去年12月的“点阵图”,预测中值是今年会有三次加息。
 
  鲍威尔上个月给市场留下的印象是:他愿意接受2018年加息四次,而不是目前在决策者“点阵图”预测中所体现的三次。
 
  Norland指出,虽然他预计利率会上升,但他认为收益率曲线不会在2019年之前变平,届时衰退可能会在12至18个月后出现。
 
  从历史上来看,收益率曲线平坦或者倒挂通常能够准确地预测经济衰退。
 
  在黄金方面,Norland表示,收紧货币政策可能会给黄金带来麻烦。
 
       他说道:“通常情况下,当市场从没有对加息定价到突然转变为定价,这对黄金来说是个坏消息。”
        CME料美联储可能会撒鹰 黄金要有“大麻烦”(图1)

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