财经快讯

当恶性通胀发生时 黄金究竟能起到怎样的作用?

日期:2018-02-05

当恶性通胀发生时,黄金究竟能起到怎样的作用?针对这一问题,分析师Michael J Kosares将从4个方面做出具体分析:

一、 黄金具有预测通胀的功能

黄金不仅能反映当前的通货膨胀率,还能预测未来的通货膨胀。随着数以百万计的投资者将资本从不断贬值的货币转移到黄金和白银之中,金银价格的上涨速度可能会远远超过通货膨胀率。

二、 恶性通胀发生时纸币不再足以用来支付工资

当恶性通胀发生时,企业并不能迅速提升工资水平以追上不断贬值的货币。例如,在德国恶性通胀最严重的时期,雇主一天就需要支付好几次工资,但是当工人们拿着一堆纸币去商店时,发现物价又上涨了。即使在现代数字化的环境中,由于决策和复杂的流程问题,若出现恶性通胀,企业仍然很难克服工资缩水的问题。

当恶性通胀发生时 黄金究竟能起到怎样的作用?(图1)

三、 银行储蓄利率实际上并不能和通胀同步增长

许多人认为,银行的储蓄利率或是其他理财投资的回报率都会与通胀同步增长,但事实并非如此。例如,若一夜之间央行公布通胀提升10%,同时银行储蓄利率也提升10%,造成的结果是你持有的货币瞬间贬值,但是银行的利息只能随着时间流逝慢慢到账。

四、 金银价格上涨具有即时性

与银行的储蓄利率不同,若央行宣布通胀上涨,金银价格会立马飙升,当然,若大家对于通胀的预期更高,那么金银的价格涨幅甚至会超过通胀涨幅。

此外,以上假设为通胀上升10%,在极度的恶性通胀环境之下,通胀可能一天之内就上升50%,100%,甚至1000%,那么工资和银行储蓄的问题将更加复杂。

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