财经快讯

英镑及加元走势分析

日期:2018-02-02
周五(2月2日)加拿大丰业银行(Scotiabank)分析师撰文就英镑/美元及美元/加元的后市表现进行分析,具体内容如下:该行指出,英镑/美元上日回吐欧市盘初的多数涨幅,因周四公布的1月Markit/CIPS制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)弱于预期。此次公布的PMI为55.3,低于预期值56.5以及前值56.2。

此外,英国国内政治依旧是关键的短期风险,因市场参与者预计首相特蕾莎梅的领导权存在不确定性。当地媒体正在报道可能的内阁成员辞职的传言

不过,基本面仍具有建设性,下周英国央行可能会占据主导,其将在2月8日公布利率决议、会议纪要和季度通胀报告。

目前,隔夜指数掉期利率预期英国12月收紧的可能性为37%。针对加元,该行外汇策略师仍保持中性态度,与此同时预计该汇价将打破1.2250/1.2380区间。
英镑及加元走势分析(图1)
在本周三美联储决议后,鉴于会后声明的略偏鹰派调整,该央行的前景可能会受到新的关注。这提醒我们,加元将继续交投高于利差所暗示的水平,因美-加2年期利差重新升至30基点上方,逼近11月30日的高点35。风险逆转预期对加元弱势的溢价保护相对温和,这令加元极易受到市场人气的影响。

美元/加元试图延续近期弱势,近期走势明显表明1.2280及1.2250是关键支撑水平。中期信号看空,但程度温和,我们等待跌破近期的交投区间1.2250/1.2380。

北京时间2月2日09:27,英镑/美元报1.4260/62,美元/加元报1.2275/76。

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