财经快讯

PIMCO预计今年美联储将加息三次

日期:2018-01-29
太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)在最新发布的2018年市场展望中指出,美联储希望通胀能升至2%的目标值上方,市场可能会对此感到不满意,但今年可能会证明美联储是对的,而市场是错的。市场现在预期的美联储今年加息次数只有两次,但PIMCO认为今年美联储将加息三次,美国可能面临的风险是经济过热。
PIMCO预计今年美联储将加息三次(图1)
PIMCO分析师表示,考虑到大于预期的减税幅度以及更高的联邦开支,预期2018年美国实际国内生产总值增长率将超趋势,达到近2.5%的水平。PIMCO还预期家庭和企业所得税下调将令2018年美国经济增长0.2到0.3个百分点。另外0.2个百分点将来自于更高的政府开支,而更高的政府开支将体现在飓风相关灾难救济拨款增加以及可自由支配支出增加。此外,失业率将有望下滑至4%以下的水平,工资增长率和消费者价格通胀率将承受上涨压力,核心消费者物价通胀率将有望上涨至逾2%的水平,而核心消费支出价格通胀率也将上涨至1.7%,这样又朝着2%的目标迈近了一步。

PIMCO认为,美联储可能继续逐渐上调联邦基金目标利率。目前的美联储将在2018年进行三次上调的预期看起来是一个合理的基本假设。如果2018年金融和经济环境仍然有利,那么四次上调也完全有可能。

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