财经快讯

黄金2018年前景如何?瑞银:一分为二来看

日期:2018-01-15
周一(1月15日)亚市现货黄金开盘走低,目前交投在1337美元/盎司附近,基本守住上日涨幅,上个交易日金价大幅飙升,最高触及1339.31水平。

针对黄金2018年的表现,瑞银集团(UBS)首席投资办公室(CIO)分析如下:

2018年金价走势需一分为二来看,在今年良好开局后,金价可能会在近期内出现回调,但今年下半年的价格将再次回升。

该行预期金价至2018年末的目标指向1325美元/盎司。

瑞银指出,2018年黄金的主要推动因素将是美国实际利率、美元、地缘政治风险以及市场波动率。
黄金2018年前景如何?瑞银:一分为二来看(图1)
在今年上半年,除了地缘政治冲突外,美国的税收和财政改革以及宏观经济数据应该继续支持股票和其他收益性资产。因此,黄金的支撑因素应该很少。

瑞银指出,不排除在未来几个月内金价将跌至三个月区间底部1,225美元/盎司,投资者将将此视为增加黄金配置的机会。不过,该行认为在今年下半年,随着美国通胀上升,市场估值变得更加过度,美国实际利率将再次转为负值,因此黄金的表现将会更好。

瑞银集团指出,在股市波动性上升期间,黄金相对来说将表现良好。该行预期金价2018年年末价格目标为1325美元/盎司。

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