财经快讯

北欧斯安银行:仍相信Fed年底前会升息 但这一前提不可忽略

日期:2017-08-17
北欧斯安银行(SEB)分析师周四(8月17日)置评隔夜美联储会议,认为美联储今年年底前仍会升息至少一次,具体内容如下:

我们对会议纪要进行评估,仍然相信美联储会在2017年年底前再次加息。但正如我们早些时候警告的那样,通胀的疲软意味着,除非物价上涨或薪资增长加速,否则美联储可能会暂停加息。

由于经济疲软确实在持续,薪资增长也很温和,我们已经把对下一次加息的预期从9月推迟到12月。
北欧斯安银行:仍相信Fed年底前会升息 但这一前提不可忽略(图1)
至于资产负债表的削减,我们预计美联储将在9月19-20日的FOMC会议上宣布于10月开始缩表。

由债务上限僵局引发的金融市场波动可能会推迟,但不会取消。

市场可能会很快消化掉周三的会议纪要,焦点将转到定于8月24-26日举行的杰克逊霍尔研讨会。

杰克逊霍尔会议将为美联储提供另一个机会来在下次政策会议前澄清其意图。

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