财经快讯

升还是不升? 市场聚焦英国央行“超级周四”

日期:2017-08-01
本周(7月31日8月4日),英国市场主要聚焦于英国央行发布最新利率决议和通胀报告的“超级周四”。届时英国央行货币委员会将解释他们对目前英国经济所面临风险的想法。经济学家预期此次英国央行将按兵不动。

这次的利率决议显得颇为重要,因为随着上次货币政策会议中三名成员投票升息以及英国央行首席经济学家霍尔丹的鹰派言论,市场已经开始将近期升息的可能性部分定价。

升还是不升? 市场聚焦英国央行“超级周四”(图1)
然而,最近的通胀数据表明,6月份英国CPI由2.9%的前值降至2.6%,二季度英国GDP也仅增长0.3%,这令要升息抑制通胀、并撤回部分对经济刺激的理由动遥

同时,全球紧缩货币政策的背景也开始转变。尤其是美联储开始放缓它的紧缩倾向,欧洲央行也继续坚持紧缩货币政策需要耐心和采取非常缓步的方式。

另外,英国央行的货币政策委员会也已“洗牌”。连续三次投票升息的福布斯被来自伦敦经济学院的泰瑞罗(Silvana Tenreyro)所替代。这是她首次参加货币政策会议,外界普遍预期她不会投票升息。
 
 
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