财经快讯

美联储将激活黄金 道明证券推荐一个旱涝保收的方法

日期:2017-03-07
  道明证券(TD)周一评论称,市场的波动来到了历史区间的下界。
 
  考虑到英国脱欧谈判、欧洲大选和美国新总统可能重洗二战后的格局,恐慌指数和隐性黄金波动都在历史低位显得很怪异。
 
  特朗普的经济政策可能加大风险偏好是一部分原因,而更多的原因是宽松政策的持续。脱手可得的资金成为了震荡缓和器,将波动拉低。
 
  然而一旦美联储(FED)开启利率正常化并削减资产负债表,波动可能会显著上升。此外,对欧洲央行(ECB)逐渐退出宽松的猜测也越来越多。
 
  黄金和股市的低波动性让市场很困惑,不禁让人怀疑过去的市场波动机制是否坏了。
 
  答案是否定的,预期随着政治风险和美联储退出宽松,恐慌指数和隐性黄金波动将在近期走高。
 
  由于预期降税会推高股市和美联储加息,黄金波动遭到大量做空。
 
  有鉴于此,建议采取跨式期权来做多黄金波动。具体方法为同时买入2017年10月到期的平价看涨和看跌期权,执行价格均为1240美元。
 
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