财经快讯

黄金多头利好!需要美联储加息

日期:2016-09-06
  美联储的鹰派一方,已经逐渐为加息两处了底牌,2016年加息,再一次回到了桌面上,有经济学家认为,加息恰恰对黄金有帮助。
 
  Dundee Economics首席经济学家Martin Murenbeeld认为:
 
  2015年在美联储加息后,黄金几乎触及了当时的最低点,随后黄金就开启了一股强劲的涨势。
 
  Murenbeeld认为:历史如果可以起到某种指引的话,那么在勒死的情况下,相同的事情可能会重演。
黄金多头利好!需要美联储加息(图1)
  加息将会导致黄金市场的负面“膝跳”,从而导致贵金属大幅走高,因为25个基点幅度加息对美国经济不会有实质性影响。
 
  这个利率对于黄金来说,并不是很重要。重要的是实际利率,它是黄金最为看重的。
 
  Murenbeeld认为,美联储加息,只是为了一杯未来经济可能出现的负面情况导致降息,做一个缓冲。
 
  而交易员Vince Lanci更为可观,他认为黄金多头,需要美联储加息,这种迹象充分的证明了,美联储已经将手中的棋子下完了。
 
  我们真的认为美联储在政治压力下已经身处困境,他们无法做出正确的决策。希拉里把经济作为竞选赌注,而美股正是美国经济的晴雨表。如果标普500止损跌去500点,她将会很难获胜。而一旦民粹派特朗普上台,他们将会攻击甚至扭转之前所有的政策。特朗普有可能获胜。再加上现实的经济还没有恢复,新增就业人数中服务员和调酒师职位越来越少,所以加息看起来很荒唐。

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