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小非农亮眼大非农紧逼,黄金还看明晚主戏

日期:2016-08-04
  本周黄金一度触及1367美元/盎司,自7月11日回落以来再次逼近年内高点。但产品金和钯金的ETF基金并未看到交易量明显变化。黄金的上一次飙升是在退欧公投后。国际现货黄金在7月6日突破1374美元/盎司,创两年半新高。
小非农亮眼大非农紧逼,黄金还看明晚主戏(图1)
  ADP就业数据素有“小非农”之称,是周五即将发布的非农就业数据的风向标,周三公布的ADP数据好于预期,也预示着周五的非农数据会比较乐观,这意味着美联储加息又重回桌面,黄金料进一步遭受考验。然而,投资者对黄金的兴趣再度升温,在长达一个月持仓量几乎停滞后,投资者再度涌入黄金ETF。根据彭博汇总的数据,过去5个交易日全球黄金ETF持仓量呈现攀升态势,目前规模已经扩大至2023.7吨,创下三年来最高水平。世界最大黄金ETF--SPDR GOLD TRUST持仓周二较上日增加5.94吨,当前持仓量为969.97吨。
 
  另一方面,由于黄金持有者没有利息,因此更高的利率往往打压黄金。当借贷成本上涨,黄金又要努力与附息资产竞争。对美联储加息来提高其他资产(如债券)的竞争力的预期也在。
 
  不过,这一切都还是取决于经济数据的表现。近期数据显示,美国二季度GDP增速大幅不及预期,二季度GDP年化环比初值增速1.2%,预期为2.5%;ISM制造业指数和非制造业指数双双不及预期;7月“小非农”ADP就业数据好于预期,这也带来了黄金0.5%的下滑,但就业增速有所放缓。本周五将公布万众瞩目的非农数据。
 
  不过,与不断上涨的金价不同,中印两大市场销售下滑,实物黄金的需求一直疲软。据汤森路透黄金矿业服务公司,随着中国珠宝首饰消费量剧烈下滑56%,印度也缩减24%,二季度实物黄金的需求减少了22%。

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