财经快讯

下调金价预期至1250 但有三大利好因素

日期:2016-01-22
        今年以来,全球股市等市场的混乱局面推动了避险需求,使得金价被大幅推高。
 
  凯投宏观(Capital Economics)指出,过去一个月,避险需求使得金价大幅走高,尽管此前美联储在去年12月有升息。
 
  该行大宗商品经济学家Julian Jessop称,黄金和白银都受到股市下跌、油价疲软以及地缘政治问题所带来避险需求的推动。
 
  然而与之对比的是产品金价格下跌了近10%,而钯金价格也有2%的下跌,受到市场对中国经济增长放缓担忧所带来需求减少的影响。
 
  Jessop近期将今年金价预期自此前的1400下调至1250美元/盎司。
 
  Jessop表示:“去年黄金市场的关键推动是美元的走强和对美联储升息的预期,我们认为这是今年金价继续面临的不利因素。”他认为,尽管近期全球市场混乱,但美联储依然会深吸,并且步伐比市场预期的更大。
 
  不过同时,Jessop指出了黄金市场的三大利好因素。
 
  “避险需求的增加、全球发达国家通胀的上升以及新兴市场国家和央行需求的增加都是利好的。”
 
  Jessop表示,金价下行支撑1000美元/盎司。
 
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