财经快讯

美联储年底前加息概率仍较大

日期:2015-05-25
    虽然美联储的态度短期出现了犹豫,但似乎市场对于美国经济的前景依然十分乐观。上周三公布的会议纪要显示,美联储的经济学家上调了经济增长的展望,理由是美元走弱将提振出口,且利率料在比之前预期的更长一段时间内保持低点。
  美联储主席耶伦和许多官员相信暂时性因素是抑制经济增长的原因。在开始提高利率这个问题上,他们希望市场能够从零利率市场平稳过渡至正利率市场,因此态度较为谨慎,事实上这也是美联储前瞻性指引工作的一部分。
  许多机构和市场参与者预期9月或甚至更晚才是美联储最有可能开始加息的时点,但12月底之前加息的概率似乎正在变得越来越大。
上周五,耶伦再次发表一次较为激进的讲话,她预计美国经济数据将走强,并指出今年开局的经济疲软是“临时性”因素和“统计噪声”所致。这是继3月的一次演讲后,耶伦再一次明确表示美联储今年年底之前可能会加息。耶伦的一再表态是希望市场能够接受加息的必然性,从而平抑未来加息给市场带来的冲动。
 
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